By Michael Marsh, David M. Farrell, Gail McElroy
"A Conservative Revolution?' examines underlying voter attitudes within the interval 2002-11. Drawing on 3 nationwide election stories the booklet follows social gathering method evolution and voter behaviour from increase to bust. those info allow an extraordinary perception right into a occasion process and its electorate at a time of serious swap, because the kingdom went via a interval of swift development to turn into one in every of Europe's wealthiest states in the early twenty-first century to fiscal meltdown in the course of the overseas nice Recession, all of this within the area of a unmarried decade. within the strategy, this examine explores the various well-established norms and traditional wisdoms of Irish electoral behaviour that make it such an enticing case learn for comparability with different industrialized democracies."-- Read more...
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"A Conservative Revolution? ' examines underlying voter attitudes within the interval 2002-11. Drawing on 3 nationwide election reports the e-book follows celebration procedure evolution and voter behaviour from increase to bust. those information enable an unheard of perception right into a get together method and its citizens at a time of serious swap, because the kingdom went via a interval of swift development to turn into one in every of Europe's wealthiest states within the early twenty-first century to fiscal meltdown in the middle of the overseas nice Recession, all of this within the area of a unmarried decade.
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Extra info for A conservative revolution? : electoral change in twenty-first-century Ireland
These predicted probabilities are derived from a multinomial logit regression model and refer to a man born in 1970, who lives in an urban area and is not a member of a trade union. 10 The reason that economic divisions among voters now correlate with party support is that the half of Fianna Fáil voters that left Fianna Fáil between 2007 and 2011 chose to defect to different parties depending on their economic position in society. 11 10 Although we cannot measure it in earlier election years, it is also notable that people who held assets (such as stock and shares or a second home) were considerably less likely to defect from Fianna Fáil to Labour and Sinn Féin.
In the process, this chapter also marshals the evidence for and against the alleged ‘earthquake’ election of 2011—evidence that, if anything, points more towards a ‘conservative revolution’, not least as shown by how yet again government turnover was kept within the parties of the political establishment. At the heart of O’Malley and Carty’s analysis is a discussion of how the established parties, most notably Fianna Fáil, have maintained their hold over the political system—through such means as institutionalizing a politics of localism, one that eschews competing on policy grounds and displaces controversial issues (such as divorce and abortion) through the device of referendums and reliance on the courts—thus mitigating the risks of major electoral change.
They held the government responsible, and then voted accordingly’ (Marsh and Mikhaylov 2012: 482). However, the sanction was especially harsh because of the sequencing of critical public decisions such as the bank guarantee and the withdrawal from 32 The Economy and Voting in Irish Elections the bond market and the media commentary surrounding them, which ‘persuaded the public that things were even worse than it had believed, and conﬁrmed that Fianna Fáil was to blame’ (Marsh and Mikhaylov 2012: 483).
A conservative revolution? : electoral change in twenty-first-century Ireland by Michael Marsh, David M. Farrell, Gail McElroy